Impacts of Climate Change on Volcanic Stratospheric Injections: Comparison of 1-D and 3-D Plume Model Projections
Geophysical Research Letters
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Aubry, T., Cerminara, M., & Jellinek, A. (2019). Impacts of Climate Change on Volcanic Stratospheric Injections: Comparison of 1-D and 3-D Plume Model Projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (17-18), 10609-10618. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083975
©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Explosive volcanic eruptions are one of the most important driver of climate variability. Yet, we still lack a fundamental understanding of how climate change may affect future eruptions. Here, we use an ensemble of simulations by 1-D and 3-D volcanic plume models spanning a large range of eruption source and atmospheric conditions to assess changes in the dynamics of future eruptive columns. Our results shed new light on differences between the predictions of 1-D and 3-D plume models. Furthermore, both models suggest that as a result of ongoing climate change, for tropical eruptions, (i) higher eruption intensities will be required for plumes to reach the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere and (ii) the height of plumes currently reaching the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere or above will increase. We discuss the implications of these results for the climatic impacts of future eruptions. Our simulations can directly inform climate model experiments on climate-volcano feedback.
T.J.A.acknowledges funding from the Royal Society through a Newton International Fellowship (Grant NIF⧵R1⧵-180809).M. C. acknowledges CINECA Award N. HP10BRDK2T (2017) for high-performance computing resources used for testing the ASHEEcode; the FISR 2016 “Centro di studioe monitoraggio dei rischi naturalidellItalia centrale” project framework,managed by the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) and funded by the Italian Ministry of Education,University and Research; and the European Unions Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant Agreement 731070. T. J.A. and A.M.J. acknowledge support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada during completion of this work.
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083975
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/297281
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