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Inference under unequal probability sampling with the Bayesian exponentially tilted empirical likelihood.

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

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Authors

Yiu, A 
Goudie, RJB 
Tom, BDM 

Abstract

Fully Bayesian inference in the presence of unequal probability sampling requires stronger structural assumptions on the data-generating distribution than frequentist semiparametric methods, but offers the potential for improved small-sample inference and convenient evidence synthesis. We demonstrate that the Bayesian exponentially tilted empirical likelihood can be used to combine the practical benefits of Bayesian inference with the robustness and attractive large-sample properties of frequentist approaches. Estimators defined as the solutions to unbiased estimating equations can be used to define a semiparametric model through the set of corresponding moment constraints. We prove Bernstein-von Mises theorems which show that the posterior constructed from the resulting exponentially tilted empirical likelihood becomes approximately normal, centred at the chosen estimator with matching asymptotic variance; thus, the posterior has properties analogous to those of the estimator, such as double robustness, and the frequentist coverage of any credible set will be approximately equal to its credibility. The proposed method can be used to obtain modified versions of existing estimators with improved properties, such as guarantees that the estimator lies within the parameter space. Unlike existing Bayesian proposals, our method does not prescribe a particular choice of prior or require posterior variance correction, and simulations suggest that it provides superior performance in terms of frequentist criteria.

Description

Keywords

Bayesian method of moments, Bernstein–von Mises theorem, Double robustness, Exponentially tilted empirical likelihood, M-estimation, Selection bias

Journal Title

Biometrika

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0006-3444
1464-3510

Volume Title

107

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Rights

All rights reserved
Sponsorship
MRC (unknown)
MRC