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Impact of loss-to-follow-up on cancer survival estimates for small populations: a simulation study using Hospital-Based Cancer Registries in Japan

Published version
Peer-reviewed

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Type

Article

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Authors

Barclay, Matthew 
Chen, Cong 
Higashi, Takahiro 

Abstract

Objectives: The accuracy of the ascertainment of vital status impacts the validity of cancer survival. This study assesses the potential impact of loss-to-follow-up on survival in Japan, both nationally and in the samples seen at individual hospitals. Design: Simulation study Setting and participants: Data of patients diagnosed in 2007, provided by the Hospital-Based Cancer Registries of 177 hospitals throughout Japan. Primary and secondary outcome measures: We performed simulations for each cancer site, for sample sizes of 100, 1000 and 8000 patients, and for loss-to-follow-up ranging from 1% to 5%. We estimated the average bias and the variation in bias in survival due to loss-to-follow-up. Results: The expected bias was not associated with the sample size (with 5% loss-to-follow-up, about 2.1% for the cohort including all cancers), but a smaller sample size led to more variable bias. Sample sizes of around 100 patients, as may be seen at individual hospitals, had very variable bias: with 5% loss-to-follow-up for all cancers, 25% of samples had a bias of <1.02% and 25% of samples had a bias of > 3.06%. Conclusion: Survival should be interpreted with caution when loss-to-follow-up is a concern, especially for poor-prognosis cancers and for small-area estimates.

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Keywords

Epidemiology, 1506, 1692, survival analysis, oncology, simulation, registries, prognosis

Journal Title

BMJ Open

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

2044-6055

Volume Title

10

Publisher

BMJ Publishing Group
Sponsorship
The Cancer Research and Development Fund of National Cancer Centre, Japan (H29-A-17)