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The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers.

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

van der Bles, Anne Marthe  ORCID logo  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7953-9425
van der Linden, Sander  ORCID logo  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0269-1744
Freeman, Alexandra LJ  ORCID logo  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4115-161X
Spiegelhalter, David J  ORCID logo  https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9350-6745

Abstract

Uncertainty is inherent to our knowledge about the state of the world yet often not communicated alongside scientific facts and numbers. In the "posttruth" era where facts are increasingly contested, a common assumption is that communicating uncertainty will reduce public trust. However, a lack of systematic research makes it difficult to evaluate such claims. We conducted five experiments-including one preregistered replication with a national sample and one field experiment on the BBC News website (total n = 5,780)-to examine whether communicating epistemic uncertainty about facts across different topics (e.g., global warming, immigration), formats (verbal vs. numeric), and magnitudes (high vs. low) influences public trust. Results show that whereas people do perceive greater uncertainty when it is communicated, we observed only a small decrease in trust in numbers and trustworthiness of the source, and mostly for verbal uncertainty communication. These results could help reassure all communicators of facts and science that they can be more open and transparent about the limits of human knowledge.

Description

Keywords

communication, contested, posttruth, trust, uncertainty, Communication, Humans, Internet, Meta-Analysis as Topic, Trust, Uncertainty

Journal Title

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0027-8424
1091-6490

Volume Title

117

Publisher

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Rights

All rights reserved
Sponsorship
Nuffield Foundation (OSP/43227)
David And Claudia Harding Foundation (unknown)
Nuffield Foundation David & Claudia Harding Charitable Foundation