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The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China.

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

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Authors

Yang, Chia-Hung 
Gutierrez, Bernardo  ORCID logo  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9220-2739

Abstract

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions were undertaken to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, affected COVID-19 spread in China. We used real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation in transmission in cities across China and to ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was explained well by human mobility data. After the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases were still indicative of local chains of transmission outside of Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.

Description

Keywords

Age Distribution, Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, China, Coronavirus Infections, Epidemiological Monitoring, Humans, Linear Models, Pandemics, Pneumonia, Viral, SARS-CoV-2, Sex Distribution, Spatial Analysis, Travel

Journal Title

Science

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0036-8075
1095-9203

Volume Title

368

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Rights

All rights reserved