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Early warning systems in inpatient anorexia nervosa: A validation of the MARSIPAN-based modified early warning system.

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Ioannidis, Konstantinos  ORCID logo  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1537-5425
Serfontein, Jaco 
Deakin, Julia 
Bruneau, Melanie 
Ciobanca, Anya 

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to evaluate the validity of a MARSIPAN-guidance-adapted Early Warning System (MARSI MEWS) and compare it to the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and an adapted version of the Physical Risk in Eating Disorders Index (PREDIX), to ascertain whether current practice is comparable to best-practice standards. METHODS: We collated 3,937 observations from 36 inpatients from Addenbrookes Hospital over 2017-2018 and used three independent raters to create a "gold standard" of deteriorating cases. We ascertained performance metrics (Receiver Operating Characteristic Area Under the curve) for MARSI MEWS, NEWS and PREDIX; we also tested the proof of concept of a machine-learning-based early-warning-system (ML-EWS) using cross-validation and out-of-sample prediction of cases. RESULTS: The MARSI MEWS system showed higher ROC AUC (0.916) compared to NEWS (0.828) or PREDIX (0.865). ML-EWS (random forest) performed well at independent samples analysis (0.980) and multilevel analysis (0.922). CONCLUSION: MARSI MEWS seems most suitable for identifying critically deteriorating cases in anorexia nervosa inpatient population. We did not examine community practice in which the PREDIX arguably remains the best to ascertain deteriorating cases. Our results also provide a first proof of concept for the development of artificial-intelligence-based early warning systems in anorexia nervosa. Implications for inpatient clinical practice in eating disorders are discussed.

Description

Keywords

anorexia nervosa, deterioration, early warning system, inpatient, machine learning, Adult, Anorexia Nervosa, Area Under Curve, Clinical Deterioration, Early Diagnosis, Early Warning Score, Female, Hospitalization, Humans, Male, Monitoring, Physiologic, ROC Curve, Reproducibility of Results

Journal Title

Eur Eat Disord Rev

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

1072-4133
1099-0968

Volume Title

28

Publisher

Wiley

Rights

All rights reserved
Sponsorship
This research was carried out by K.I. during a Fellowship awarded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Applied Research collaboration (ARC) East of England at Cambridgeshire and Peterborough NHS Foundation Trust. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.