Repository logo
 

Cardiometabolic risk prediction algorithms for young people with psychosis: a systematic review and exploratory analysis.

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

No Thumbnail Available

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Upthegrove, R 
Crawford, O 
Jang, S 
Lau, E 

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: Cardiometabolic risk prediction algorithms are common in clinical practice. Young people with psychosis are at high risk for developing cardiometabolic disorders. We aimed to examine whether existing cardiometabolic risk prediction algorithms are suitable for young people with psychosis. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and narrative synthesis of studies reporting the development and validation of cardiometabolic risk prediction algorithms for general or psychiatric populations. Furthermore, we used data from 505 participants with or at risk of psychosis at age 18 years in the ALSPAC birth cohort, to explore the performance of three algorithms (QDiabetes, QRISK3 and PRIMROSE) highlighted as potentially suitable. We repeated analyses after artificially increasing participant age to the mean age of the original algorithm studies to examine the impact of age on predictive performance. RESULTS: We screened 7820 results, including 110 studies. All algorithms were developed in relatively older participants, and most were at high risk of bias. Three studies (QDiabetes, QRISK3 and PRIMROSE) featured psychiatric predictors. Age was more strongly weighted than other risk factors in each algorithm. In our exploratory analysis, calibration plots for all three algorithms implied a consistent systematic underprediction of cardiometabolic risk in the younger sample. After increasing participant age, calibration plots were markedly improved. CONCLUSION: Existing cardiometabolic risk prediction algorithms cannot be recommended for young people with or at risk of psychosis. Existing algorithms may underpredict risk in young people, even in the face of other high-risk features. Recalibration of existing algorithms or a new tailored algorithm for the population is required.

Description

Keywords

ALSPAC, algorithms, cardiometabolic risk, prediction, psychosis, systematic review, Adolescent, Algorithms, Cardiovascular Diseases, Humans, Infant, Newborn, Psychotic Disorders, Risk Factors

Journal Title

Acta Psychiatr Scand

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0001-690X
1600-0447

Volume Title

142

Publisher

Wiley

Rights

All rights reserved
Sponsorship
Wellcome Trust (201486/Z/16/Z)
Medical Research Council (MC_PC_17213)
Medical Research Council (MR/S037675/1)
MQ: Transforming Mental Health (MQDS17\40)