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Uncertainty quantification of density and stratification estimates with implications for predicting ocean dynamics

Published version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Rayson, MD 
Cripps, E 
Gosling, JP 

Abstract

jats:titleAbstract</jats:title>jats:pWe present a statistical method for reconstructing continuous background density profiles that embeds incomplete measurements and a physically intuitive density stratification model within a Bayesian hierarchal framework. A double hyperbolic tangent function is used as a parametric density stratification model that captures various pycnocline structures in the upper ocean and offers insight into several density profile characteristics (e.g., pycnocline depth). The posterior distribution is used to quantify uncertainty and is estimated using recent advances in Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. Temporally evolving posterior distributions of density profile characteristics, isopycnal heights, and nonlinear ocean process models for internal gravity waves are presented as examples of how uncertainty propagates through models dependent on the density stratification. The results show 0.95 posterior interval widths that ranged from 2.5% to 4% of the expected values for the linear internal wave phase speed and 15%–40% for the nonlinear internal wave steepening parameter. The data, collected over a year from a through-the-column mooring, and code, implemented in the software package Stan, accompany the article.</jats:p>

Description

Keywords

Thermocline, In situ oceanic observations, Bayesian methods, Model errors, Model output statistics

Journal Title

Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0739-0572
1520-0426

Volume Title

36

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Rights

All rights reserved
Sponsorship
EPSRC (EP/P020720/2)
EPSRC (EP/R018413/2)
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/R034710/1)
Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (EP/R004889/1)
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/J016934/3)