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Dynamic Bayesian forecasting of AFL match results using the Skellam distribution

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Manderson, AA 
Murray, K 
Turlach, BA 

Abstract

jats:titleSummary</jats:title>jats:pThe scoring and defensive abilities of Australian Rules Football teams change over time as a result of evolving player rosters, tactics and other management factors. We develop a dynamic model based on the Poisson difference (Skellam) distribution which simultaneously models the two different point scoring mechanisms in Australian Rules Football, the motivation for which comes from work on predicting outcomes in soccer matches. Our model is developed in a Bayesian framework and is fitted using the jats:styled-contentStan</jats:styled-content> modelling language. Model validation is performed on the 2015 Australian Football league (AFL) home and away season.</jats:p>

Description

Keywords

Australian rules football, Bayesian hierarchical models, dynamic models, Skellam, Stan

Journal Title

AUSTRALIAN & NEW ZEALAND JOURNAL OF STATISTICS

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

1369-1473
1467-842X

Volume Title

60

Publisher

Wiley

Rights

All rights reserved