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dc.contributor.authorCooper, Laura
dc.contributor.authorKang, Su Yun
dc.contributor.authorBisanzio, Donal
dc.contributor.authorMaxwell, Kilama
dc.contributor.authorRodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel
dc.contributor.authorGreenhouse, Bryan
dc.contributor.authorDrakeley, Chris
dc.contributor.authorArinaitwe, Emmanuel
dc.contributor.authorG. Staedke, Sarah
dc.contributor.authorGething, Peter W.
dc.contributor.authorEckhoff, Philip
dc.contributor.authorReiner, Robert C.
dc.contributor.authorHay, Simon I.
dc.contributor.authorDorsey, Grant
dc.contributor.authorKamya, Moses R.
dc.contributor.authorLindsay, Steven W.
dc.contributor.authorGrenfell, Bryan T.
dc.contributor.authorSmith, David L.
dc.date.accessioned2020-09-01T15:15:03Z
dc.date.available2020-09-01T15:15:03Z
dc.date.issued2019-09-02
dc.date.submitted2018-10-12
dc.identifier.others41467-019-11861-y
dc.identifier.other11861
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/309790
dc.description.abstractAbstract: Heterogeneity in transmission is a challenge for infectious disease dynamics and control. An 80-20 “Pareto” rule has been proposed to describe this heterogeneity whereby 80% of transmission is accounted for by 20% of individuals, herein called super-spreaders. It is unclear, however, whether super-spreading can be attributed to certain individuals or whether it is an unpredictable and unavoidable feature of epidemics. Here, we investigate heterogeneous malaria transmission at three sites in Uganda and find that super-spreading is negatively correlated with overall malaria transmission intensity. Mosquito biting among humans is 90-10 at the lowest transmission intensities declining to less than 70-30 at the highest intensities. For super-spreaders, biting ranges from 70-30 down to 60-40. The difference, approximately half the total variance, is due to environmental stochasticity. Super-spreading is thus partly due to super-spreaders, but modest gains are expected from targeting super-spreaders.
dc.languageen
dc.publisherNature Publishing Group UK
dc.subjectArticle
dc.subject/631/158
dc.subject/692/699/255/1629
dc.subject/141
dc.subject/129
dc.subjectarticle
dc.titlePareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading
dc.typeArticle
dc.date.updated2020-09-01T15:15:03Z
prism.issueIdentifier1
prism.publicationNameNature Communications
prism.volume10
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.56889
dcterms.dateAccepted2019-08-05
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1038/s41467-019-11861-y
rioxxterms.versionVoR
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.contributor.orcidRodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel [0000-0001-6784-1021]
dc.contributor.orcidDrakeley, Chris [0000-0003-4863-075X]
dc.contributor.orcidReiner, Robert C. [0000-0003-1056-7919]
dc.contributor.orcidHay, Simon I. [0000-0002-0611-7272]
dc.contributor.orcidSmith, David L. [0000-0003-4367-3849]
dc.identifier.eissn2041-1723


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