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Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading.

Published version
Peer-reviewed

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Authors

Cooper, Laura 
Kang, Su Yun 
Bisanzio, Donal 
Maxwell, Kilama 
Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel  ORCID logo  https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6784-1021

Abstract

Heterogeneity in transmission is a challenge for infectious disease dynamics and control. An 80-20 "Pareto" rule has been proposed to describe this heterogeneity whereby 80% of transmission is accounted for by 20% of individuals, herein called super-spreaders. It is unclear, however, whether super-spreading can be attributed to certain individuals or whether it is an unpredictable and unavoidable feature of epidemics. Here, we investigate heterogeneous malaria transmission at three sites in Uganda and find that super-spreading is negatively correlated with overall malaria transmission intensity. Mosquito biting among humans is 90-10 at the lowest transmission intensities declining to less than 70-30 at the highest intensities. For super-spreaders, biting ranges from 70-30 down to 60-40. The difference, approximately half the total variance, is due to environmental stochasticity. Super-spreading is thus partly due to super-spreaders, but modest gains are expected from targeting super-spreaders.

Description

Keywords

Algorithms, Animals, Anopheles, Communicable Diseases, Humans, Malaria, Models, Theoretical, Mosquito Vectors, Plasmodium, Stochastic Processes, Uganda

Journal Title

Nat Commun

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

2041-1723
2041-1723

Volume Title

10

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC