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Personalizing Breast Cancer Screening Based on Polygenic Risk and Family History.

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

van den Broek, Jeroen J 
Schechter, Clyde B 
van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T 
Janssens, A Cecile JW 
Wolfson, Michael C 

Abstract

BACKGROUND: We assessed the clinical utility of a first-degree breast cancer family history and polygenic risk score (PRS) to inform screening decisions among women aged 30-50 years. METHODS: Two established breast cancer models evaluated digital mammography screening strategies in the 1985 US birth cohort by risk groups defined by family history and PRS based on 313 single nucleotide polymorphisms. Strategies varied in initiation age (30, 35, 40, 45, and 50 years) and interval (annual, hybrid, biennial, triennial). The benefits (breast cancer deaths averted, life-years gained) and harms (false-positive mammograms, overdiagnoses) were compared with those seen with 3 established screening guidelines. RESULTS: Women with a breast cancer family history who initiated biennial screening at age 40 years (vs 50 years) had a 36% (model range = 29%-40%) increase in life-years gained and 20% (model range = 16%-24%) more breast cancer deaths averted, but 21% (model range = 17%-23%) more overdiagnoses and 63% (model range = 62%-64%) more false positives. Screening tailored to PRS vs biennial screening from 50 to 74 years had smaller positive effects on life-years gained (20%) and breast cancer deaths averted (11%) but also smaller increases in overdiagnoses (10%) and false positives (26%). Combined use of family history and PRS vs biennial screening from 50 to 74 years had the greatest increase in life-years gained (29%) and breast cancer deaths averted (18%). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that breast cancer family history and PRS could guide screening decisions before age 50 years among women at increased risk for breast cancer but expected increases in overdiagnoses and false positives should be expected.

Description

Keywords

Adult, Breast Neoplasms, False Positive Reactions, Family Health, Female, Humans, Mammography, Mass Screening, Medical Overuse, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide, Practice Guidelines as Topic, Risk, Time Factors

Journal Title

J Natl Cancer Inst

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0027-8874
1460-2105

Volume Title

113

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Rights

All rights reserved