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Serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 was shortened over time by nonpharmaceutical interventions.

Published version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Abstract

Studies of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters, including serial interval distributions-i.e., the time between illness onset in successive cases in a transmission chain-and reproduction numbers. By compiling a line-list database of transmission pairs in mainland China, we show that mean serial intervals of COVID-19 shortened substantially from 7.8 to 2.6 days within a month (9 January to 13 February 2020). This change was driven by enhanced nonpharmaceutical interventions, particularly case isolation. We also show that using real-time estimation of serial intervals allowing for variation over time provides more accurate estimates of reproduction numbers than using conventionally fixed serial interval distributions. These findings could improve our ability to assess transmission dynamics, forecast future incidence, and estimate the impact of control measures.

Description

Keywords

Basic Reproduction Number, Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, China, Coronavirus Infections, Forecasting, Humans, Incidence, Pandemics, Patient Isolation, Pneumonia, Viral, SARS-CoV-2, Time Factors

Journal Title

Science

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0036-8075
1095-9203

Volume Title

369

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Sponsorship
European Commission Horizon 2020 (H2020) ERC (804744)