Repository logo
 

Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Giannitsarou, Chrysi 
Kissler, Stephen 

Abstract

This paper offers projections of future transmission dynamics for SARS-CoV-2 in an SEIRS model with demographics and waning immunity. In a stylized optimal control setting calibrated to the USA, we show that the disease is endemic in steady state and that its dynamics are characterized by damped oscillations. The magnitude of the oscillations depends on how fast immunity wanes. The optimal social distancing policy both curbs peak prevalence and postpones the infection waves relative to the uncontrolled dynamics. Last, we perform sensitivity analysis with respect to the duration of immunity, the infection fatality rate and the planning horizon.

Description

Keywords

Journal Title

The American Economic Review: Insights

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0002-8282

Volume Title

Publisher

American Economic Association

Rights

All rights reserved