Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorBüntgen, Ulf
dc.contributor.authorLiebhold, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorNievergelt, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorWermelinger, Beat
dc.contributor.authorRoques, Alain
dc.contributor.authorReinig, Frederick
dc.contributor.authorKrusic, Paul J.
dc.contributor.authorPiermattei, Alma
dc.contributor.authorEgli, Simon
dc.contributor.authorCherubini, Paolo
dc.contributor.authorEsper, Jan
dc.date.accessioned2021-01-08T17:22:04Z
dc.date.available2021-01-08T17:22:04Z
dc.date.issued2020-01-09
dc.date.submitted2019-03-27
dc.identifier.issn0029-8549
dc.identifier.others00442-019-04585-9
dc.identifier.other4585
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/315928
dc.description.abstractAbstract: The sudden interruption of recurring larch budmoth (LBM; Zeiraphera diniana or griseana Gn.) outbreaks across the European Alps after 1982 was surprising, because populations had regularly oscillated every 8–9 years for the past 1200 years or more. Although ecophysiological evidence was limited and underlying processes remained uncertain, climate change has been indicated as a possible driver of this disruption. An unexpected, recent return of LBM population peaks in 2017 and 2018 provides insight into this insect’s climate sensitivity. Here, we combine meteorological and dendrochronological data to explore the influence of temperature variation and atmospheric circulation on cyclic LBM outbreaks since the early 1950s. Anomalous cold European winters, associated with a persistent negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, coincide with four consecutive epidemics between 1953 and 1982, and any of three warming-induced mechanisms could explain the system’s failure thereafter: (1) high egg mortality, (2) asynchrony between egg hatch and foliage growth, and (3) upward shifts of outbreak epicentres. In demonstrating that LBM populations continued to oscillate every 8–9 years at sub-outbreak levels, this study emphasizes the relevance of winter temperatures on trophic interactions between insects and their host trees, as well as the importance of separating natural from anthropogenic climate forcing on population behaviour.
dc.languageen
dc.publisherSpringer Berlin Heidelberg
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)en
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en
dc.subjectGlobal Change Ecology–Original Research
dc.subjectEuropean Alps
dc.subjectDendroecology
dc.subjectInsect outbreaks
dc.subjectNorth Atlantic Oscillation
dc.subjectPopulation cycles
dc.subjectZeiraphera diniana or griseana
dc.titleReturn of the moth: rethinking the effect of climate on insect outbreaks
dc.typeArticle
dc.date.updated2021-01-08T17:22:03Z
prism.endingPage552
prism.issueIdentifier2
prism.publicationNameOecologia
prism.startingPage543
prism.volume192
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.63039
dcterms.dateAccepted2019-12-17
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1007/s00442-019-04585-9
rioxxterms.versionVoR
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.contributor.orcidBüntgen, Ulf [0000-0002-3821-0818]
dc.identifier.eissn1432-1939
pubs.funder-project-idustES - Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/ 16_019/0000797)
pubs.funder-project-idOP RDE grant EVA4.0 (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000803)


Files in this item

Thumbnail
Thumbnail
Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)