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dc.contributor.authorLefrancq, Noemieen
dc.contributor.authorPaireau, Julietteen
dc.contributor.authorHozé, Nathanaëlen
dc.contributor.authorCourtejoie, Noémieen
dc.contributor.authorYazdanpanah, Yazdanen
dc.contributor.authorBouadma, Lilaen
dc.contributor.authorBoëlle, Pierre-Yvesen
dc.contributor.authorChereau, Fannyen
dc.contributor.authorSalje, Henriken
dc.contributor.authorCauchemez, Simonen
dc.description.abstractBackground: As SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread, a thorough characterisation of healthcare needs and patient outcomes, and how they have changed over time, is essential to inform planning. Methods: We developed a probabilistic framework to analyse detailed patient trajectories from 198,846 hospitalisations in France during the first nine months of the pandemic. Our model accounts for the varying ageand sex- distribution of patients, and explore changes in outcome probabilities as well as length of stay. Findings: We found that there were marked changes in the age and sex of hospitalisations over the study period. In particular, the proportion of hospitalised individuals that were >80y varied between 27% and 48% over the course of the epidemic, and was lowest during the inter-peak period. The probability of hospitalised patients entering ICU dropped from 0¢25 (0¢24 0¢26) to 0¢13 (0¢12 0¢14) over the four first months as case numbers fell, before rising to 0¢19 (0¢19 0¢20) during the second wave. The probability of death followed a similar trajectory, falling from 0¢25 (0¢24 0¢26) to 0¢10 (0¢09 0¢11) after the first wave before increasing again during the second wave to 0¢19 (0¢18 0¢19). Overall, we find both the probability of death and the probability of entering ICU were significantly correlated with COVID-19 ICU occupancy. Interpretation: There are large scale trends in patients outcomes by age, sex and over time. These need to be considered in ongoing healthcare planning efforts.
dc.publisherElsevier BV
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
dc.titleEvolution of outcomes for patients hospitalised during the first 9 months of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in France: A retrospective national surveillance data analysis.en
prism.publicationNameThe Lancet regional health. Europeen
dc.contributor.orcidLefrancq, Noemie [0000-0001-5991-6169]
dc.contributor.orcidSalje, Henrik [0000-0003-3626-4254]
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen
pubs.funder-project-idEuropean Commission Horizon 2020 (H2020) ERC (804744)

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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International