Repository logo
 

Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England.

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Jarvis, Christopher I  ORCID logo  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0812-2446
Kucharski, Adam J 

Abstract

A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

Description

Keywords

Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Basic Reproduction Number, COVID-19, COVID-19 Vaccines, Child, Child, Preschool, Communicable Disease Control, England, Europe, Female, Humans, Infant, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Mutation, SARS-CoV-2, Severity of Illness Index, Socioeconomic Factors, United States, Viral Load, Young Adult

Journal Title

Science

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0036-8075
1095-9203

Volume Title

372

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Rights

All rights reserved
Sponsorship
MRC (MC_PC_19027)
UK Research and Innovation (MC_PC_19027)
COG-UK is supported by funding from the MRC, part of UKRI; the NIHR; and Genome Research Limited, operating as the Wellcome Sanger Institute.
Relationships
Is derived from: