Impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to measles, meningococcal A, and yellow fever vaccination in 10 countries.

Childhood immunisation services have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. WHO recommends considering outbreak risk using epidemiological criteria when deciding whether to conduct preventive vaccination campaigns during the pandemic.

Methods

We used two to three models per infection to estimate the health impact of 50% reduced routine vaccination coverage in 2020 and delay of campaign vaccination from 2020 to 2021 for measles vaccination in Bangladesh, Chad, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Sudan, for meningococcal A vaccination in Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria, and for yellow fever vaccination in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ghana, and Nigeria. Our counterfactual comparative scenario was sustaining immunisation services at coverage projections made prior to COVID-19 (i.e. without any disruption).

Results

Reduced routine vaccination coverage in 2020 without catch-up vaccination may lead to an increase in measles and yellow fever disease burden in the modelled countries. Delaying planned campaigns in Ethiopia and Nigeria by a year may significantly increase the risk of measles outbreaks (both countries did complete their supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) planned for 2020). For yellow fever vaccination, delay in campaigns leads to a potential disease burden rise of >1 death per 100,000 people per year until the campaigns are implemented. For meningococcal A vaccination, short-term disruptions in 2020 are unlikely to have a significant impact due to the persistence of direct and indirect benefits from past introductory campaigns of the 1- to 29-year-old population, bolstered by inclusion of the vaccine into the routine immunisation schedule accompanied by further catch-up campaigns.

Conclusions

The impact of COVID-19-related disruption to vaccination programs varies between infections and countries. Planning and implementation of campaigns should consider country and infection-specific epidemiological factors and local immunity gaps worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic when prioritising vaccines and strategies for catch-up vaccination.

Funding

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.

Keywords

Human, Vaccination, Medicine, epidemiology, Measles, Yellow Fever, Global Health, Meningococcal Disease, Mathematical Modelling, Covid-19, Humans, Meningococcal Infections, Meningococcal Vaccines, Measles Vaccine, Yellow Fever Vaccine, Risk Assessment, Disease Outbreaks, Adolescent, Adult, Child, Child, Preschool, Infant, Immunization Programs, Africa, Bangladesh, Young Adult, Pandemics, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2

Journal Title

eLife

Journal ISSN

2050-084X

Volume Title

10

Publisher DOI

https://doi.org/10.7554/elife.67023

Rights

Attribution 4.0 International

Sponsorship

Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-016832)
Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill &amp (OPP1157270, INV-009125)

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