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Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning

Published version
Peer-reviewed

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Authors

Pérez-Ortiz, María 
Paige, Brooks 

Abstract

Abstract: Anthropogenic warming has led to an unprecedented year-round reduction in Arctic sea ice extent. This has far-reaching consequences for indigenous and local communities, polar ecosystems, and global climate, motivating the need for accurate seasonal sea ice forecasts. While physics-based dynamical models can successfully forecast sea ice concentration several weeks ahead, they struggle to outperform simple statistical benchmarks at longer lead times. We present a probabilistic, deep learning sea ice forecasting system, IceNet. The system has been trained on climate simulations and observational data to forecast the next 6 months of monthly-averaged sea ice concentration maps. We show that IceNet advances the range of accurate sea ice forecasts, outperforming a state-of-the-art dynamical model in seasonal forecasts of summer sea ice, particularly for extreme sea ice events. This step-change in sea ice forecasting ability brings us closer to conservation tools that mitigate risks associated with rapid sea ice loss.

Description

Keywords

Article, /704/106/125, /704/172/4081, /639/705/117, /639/705/531, /139, /141, /129, /119, article

Journal Title

Nature Communications

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

2041-1723

Volume Title

12

Publisher

Nature Publishing Group UK
Sponsorship
Alan Turing Institute (EP/T001569/1)