Efficient Bayesian inference of fully stochastic epidemiological models with applications to COVID-19.
Li, Yuting I
Peterson, Joseph D
Cates, Michael E
Royal Society open science
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Li, Y. I., Turk, G., Rohrbach, P. B., Pietzonka, P., Kappler, J., Singh, R., Dolezal, J., et al. (2021). Efficient Bayesian inference of fully stochastic epidemiological models with applications to COVID-19.. Royal Society open science, 8 (8) https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211065
Epidemiological forecasts are beset by uncertainties about the underlying epidemiological processes, and the surveillance process through which data are acquired. We present a Bayesian inference methodology that quantifies these uncertainties, for epidemics that are modelled by (possibly) non-stationary, continuous-time, Markov population processes. The efficiency of the method derives from a functional central limit theorem approximation of the likelihood, valid for large populations. We demonstrate the methodology by analysing the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK, based on age-structured data for the number of deaths. This includes maximum <i>a posteriori</i> estimates, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior, computation of the model evidence, and the determination of parameter sensitivities via the Fisher information matrix. Our methodology is implemented in PyRoss, an open-source platform for analysis of epidemiological compartment models.
Bayesian inference, epidemiology, Covid-19
European Research Council (740269)
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211065
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/328536
Attribution 4.0 International
Licence URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/