Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence.
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Authors
Abbott, Sam
Ayabina, Diepreye
Hellewell, Joel
Pi, Li
CMMID COVID-19 Working Group
Publication Date
2021-09-13Journal Title
Nat Commun
ISSN
2041-1723
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Volume
12
Issue
1
Language
eng
Type
Article
This Version
VoR
Metadata
Show full item recordCitation
Davis, E. L., Lucas, T. C., Borlase, A., Pollington, T. M., Abbott, S., Ayabina, D., Crellen, T., et al. (2021). Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence.. Nat Commun, 12 (1) https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25531-5
Abstract
Emerging evidence suggests that contact tracing has had limited success in the UK in reducing the R number across the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate potential pitfalls and areas for improvement by extending an existing branching process contact tracing model, adding diagnostic testing and refining parameter estimates. Our results demonstrate that reporting and adherence are the most important predictors of programme impact but tracing coverage and speed plus diagnostic sensitivity also play an important role. We conclude that well-implemented contact tracing could bring small but potentially important benefits to controlling and preventing outbreaks, providing up to a 15% reduction in R. We reaffirm that contact tracing is not currently appropriate as the sole control measure.
Keywords
Humans, Contact Tracing, Sensitivity and Specificity, Disease Outbreaks, Quarantine, Pandemics, United Kingdom, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 Testing
Sponsorship
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Bill & (OPP1184344)
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1184344)
RCUK | Medical Research Council (MR/V038613/1, MR/V028618/1)
Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z, 215919/Z/19/Z)
Medical Research Council (MR/V038613/1, MR/V028618/1)
Identifiers
PMC8438018, 34518525
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25531-5
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/329529
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