Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence.
CMMID COVID-19 Working Group
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
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Davis, E. L., Lucas, T. C., Borlase, A., Pollington, T. M., Abbott, S., Ayabina, D., Crellen, T., et al. (2021). Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence.. Nat Commun, 12 (1) https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25531-5
Emerging evidence suggests that contact tracing has had limited success in the UK in reducing the R number across the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate potential pitfalls and areas for improvement by extending an existing branching process contact tracing model, adding diagnostic testing and refining parameter estimates. Our results demonstrate that reporting and adherence are the most important predictors of programme impact but tracing coverage and speed plus diagnostic sensitivity also play an important role. We conclude that well-implemented contact tracing could bring small but potentially important benefits to controlling and preventing outbreaks, providing up to a 15% reduction in R. We reaffirm that contact tracing is not currently appropriate as the sole control measure.
Humans, Contact Tracing, Sensitivity and Specificity, Disease Outbreaks, Quarantine, Pandemics, United Kingdom, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 Testing
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Bill & (OPP1184344)
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1184344)
RCUK | Medical Research Council (MR/V038613/1, MR/V028618/1)
Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z, 215919/Z/19/Z)
Medical Research Council (MR/V038613/1, MR/V028618/1)
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25531-5
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/329529
Attribution 4.0 International
Licence URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/