Repository logo
 

Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence.

Published version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Abstract

Emerging evidence suggests that contact tracing has had limited success in the UK in reducing the R number across the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate potential pitfalls and areas for improvement by extending an existing branching process contact tracing model, adding diagnostic testing and refining parameter estimates. Our results demonstrate that reporting and adherence are the most important predictors of programme impact but tracing coverage and speed plus diagnostic sensitivity also play an important role. We conclude that well-implemented contact tracing could bring small but potentially important benefits to controlling and preventing outbreaks, providing up to a 15% reduction in R. We reaffirm that contact tracing is not currently appropriate as the sole control measure.

Description

Keywords

COVID-19, COVID-19 Testing, Contact Tracing, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Pandemics, Quarantine, SARS-CoV-2, Sensitivity and Specificity, United Kingdom

Journal Title

Nat Commun

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

2041-1723
2041-1723

Volume Title

12

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Sponsorship
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Bill &amp (OPP1184344)
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1184344)
RCUK | Medical Research Council (MR/V038613/1, MR/V028618/1)
Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z, 215919/Z/19/Z)
Medical Research Council (MR/V038613/1, MR/V028618/1)