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dc.contributor.authorEnright, Jessica
dc.contributor.authorHill, Edward M.
dc.contributor.authorStage, Helena B.
dc.contributor.authorBolton, Kirsty J.
dc.contributor.authorNixon, Emily J.
dc.contributor.authorFairbanks, Emma L.
dc.contributor.authorTang, Maria L.
dc.contributor.authorBrooks-Pollock, Ellen
dc.contributor.authorDyson, Louise
dc.contributor.authorBudd, Chris J.
dc.contributor.authorHoyle, Rebecca B.
dc.contributor.authorSchewe, Lars
dc.contributor.authorGog, Julia R.
dc.contributor.authorTildesley, Michael J.
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-20T18:23:49Z
dc.date.available2021-10-20T18:23:49Z
dc.date.issued2021-08-04
dc.date.submitted2021-02-23
dc.identifier.otherrsos210310
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/329676
dc.descriptionFunder: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100005347
dc.descriptionFunder: Wellcome Trust; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100004440
dc.descriptionFunder: Medical Research Council; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265
dc.descriptionFunder: UKRI
dc.descriptionFunder: University of Nottingham; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000837
dc.description.abstractIn this paper, we present work on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in UK higher education settings using multiple approaches to assess the extent of university outbreaks, how much those outbreaks may have led to spillover in the community, and the expected effects of control measures. Firstly, we found that the distribution of outbreaks in universities in late 2020 was consistent with the expected importation of infection from arriving students. Considering outbreaks at one university, larger halls of residence posed higher risks for transmission. The dynamics of transmission from university outbreaks to wider communities is complex, and while sometimes spillover does occur, occasionally even large outbreaks do not give any detectable signal of spillover to the local population. Secondly, we explored proposed control measures for reopening and keeping open universities. We found the proposal of staggering the return of students to university residence is of limited value in terms of reducing transmission. We show that student adherence to testing and self-isolation is likely to be much more important for reducing transmission during term time. Finally, we explored strategies for testing students in the context of a more transmissible variant and found that frequent testing would be necessary to prevent a major outbreak.
dc.languageen
dc.publisherThe Royal Society
dc.subjectScience, society and policy
dc.subjectepidemic modelling
dc.subjectpandemic modelling
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectSARS-CoV-2
dc.subjecthigher education
dc.titleSARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September–December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return
dc.typeArticle
dc.date.updated2021-10-20T18:23:49Z
prism.issueIdentifier8
prism.publicationNameRoyal Society Open Science
prism.volume8
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.77122
dcterms.dateAccepted2021-07-16
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1098/rsos.210310
rioxxterms.versionAO
rioxxterms.versionVoR
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.contributor.orcidEnright, Jessica [0000-0002-0266-3292]
dc.contributor.orcidHill, Edward M. [0000-0002-2992-2004]
dc.contributor.orcidStage, Helena B. [0000-0001-9938-8452]
dc.contributor.orcidBolton, Kirsty J. [0000-0003-0487-4701]
dc.contributor.orcidNixon, Emily J. [0000-0002-1626-9296]
dc.contributor.orcidFairbanks, Emma L. [0000-0002-1598-962X]
dc.contributor.orcidTang, Maria L. [0000-0002-9671-8302]
dc.contributor.orcidBrooks-Pollock, Ellen [0000-0002-5984-4932]
dc.contributor.orcidDyson, Louise [0000-0001-9788-4858]
dc.contributor.orcidBudd, Chris J. [0000-0003-4536-1662]
dc.contributor.orcidHoyle, Rebecca B. [0000-0002-1645-1071]
dc.contributor.orcidSchewe, Lars [0000-0002-3778-262X]
dc.contributor.orcidGog, Julia R. [0000-0003-1240-7214]
dc.contributor.orcidTildesley, Michael J. [0000-0002-6875-7232]
dc.identifier.eissn2054-5703
pubs.funder-project-idEPSRC (EP/R014604/1)
pubs.funder-project-idRoyal Society (202562/Z/16/Z)
pubs.funder-project-idCOVID (MR/V009761/1)
pubs.funder-project-idJUNIPER (MR/V038613/1)
pubs.funder-project-idEngineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/N509620/1, EP/T004878/1)


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