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dc.contributor.authorHarvey, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorKattuman, Paul
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-31T00:50:18Z
dc.date.available2021-10-31T00:50:18Z
dc.date.issued2021-09-29
dc.identifier.citationJournal of the Royal Society, Interface, volume 18, issue 182, page 20210179
dc.identifier.issn1742-5689
dc.identifier.otherPMC8479341
dc.identifier.other34583564
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/330118
dc.description.abstractThe time-dependent reproduction number, <i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub>, is a key metric used by epidemiologists to assess the current state of an outbreak of an infectious disease. This quantity is usually estimated using time-series observations on new infections combined with assumptions about the distribution of the serial interval of transmissions. Bayesian methods are often used with the new cases data smoothed using a simple, but to some extent arbitrary, moving average. This paper describes a new class of time-series models, estimated by classical statistical methods, for tracking and forecasting the growth rate of new cases and deaths. Very few assumptions are needed and those that are made can be tested. Estimates of <i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub>, together with their standard deviations, are obtained as a by-product.
dc.languageeng
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.sourceessn: 1742-5662
dc.sourcenlmid: 101217269
dc.subjectState-space model
dc.subjectKalman Filter
dc.subjectWaves
dc.subjectGompertz Curve
dc.subjectCovid-19
dc.subjectStochastic Trend
dc.subjectHumans
dc.subjectModels, Statistical
dc.subjectBayes Theorem
dc.subjectForecasting
dc.subjectEpidemics
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectSARS-CoV-2
dc.titleA farewell to <i>R</i>: time-series models for tracking and forecasting epidemics.
dc.typeArticle
dc.date.updated2021-10-31T00:50:17Z
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.77562
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1098/rsif.2021.0179
rioxxterms.versionVoR
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.contributor.orcidHarvey, Andrew [0000-0003-3082-0440]
dc.contributor.orcidKattuman, Paul [0000-0003-1209-5169]


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Attribution 4.0 International
Except where otherwise noted, this item's licence is described as Attribution 4.0 International