Expert elicitation on the relative importance of possible SARS-CoV-2 transmission routes and the effectiveness of mitigations
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Freeman, A., Parker, S., Noakes, C., Fitzgerald, S., Smyth, A., Macbeth, R., Spiegelhalter, D., & et al. (2021). Expert elicitation on the relative importance of possible SARS-CoV-2 transmission routes and the effectiveness of mitigations. BMJ Open https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.77618
Objectives: In order to help people make decisions regarding the most effective mitigations against SARS-CoV-2 transmission in different scenarios, the likelihood of transmission by different routes need to be quantified to some degree (however uncertain). These likelihoods need to be communicated in an appropriate way, to illustrate the relative importance of different routes in different scenarios, likely effectiveness of different mitigations along those routes, and the level of uncertainty in those estimates. In this study, a pragmatic expert elicitation was undertaken to supply the underlying quantitative values to produce such a communication tool. Participants: Twenty seven individual experts, from five countries and many scientific disciplines provided estimates. Outcome measures: Estimates of transmission parameters, assessments of the quality of the evidence, references to relevant literature, rationales for their estimates and sources of uncertainty. Results/Conclusions: The participants’ responses showed that there is still considerable disagreement between experts on the relative importance of different transmission pathways and effectiveness of different mitigations, due to a lack of empirical evidence. Despite these disagreements, when pooled, the majority views on each parameter formed an internally consistent set of estimates (for example, that transmission was more likely indoors than outdoors; at closer than further range etc) which formed the basis of a visualisation to help individuals and organisations understand the factors that influence transmission and the potential benefits of different mitigation measures.
Funding to support development of the visualisation tool and publication was provided by the PROTECT COVID-19 National Core Study on transmission and environment, managed by the Health and Safety Executive on behalf of HM Government.
David And Claudia Harding Foundation (unknown)
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This record's DOI: https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.77618
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/330176
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