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dc.contributor.authorSimpson, Charles
dc.contributor.authorHosking, J Scott
dc.contributor.authorMitchell, Dann
dc.contributor.authorBetts, Richard A
dc.contributor.authorShuckburgh, Emily
dc.date.accessioned2021-11-22T14:38:21Z
dc.date.available2021-11-22T14:38:21Z
dc.date.issued2021-12
dc.date.submitted2021-05-12
dc.identifier.issn1748-9326
dc.identifier.othererlac3288
dc.identifier.otherac3288
dc.identifier.othererl-111504.r2
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/330822
dc.description.abstractThe 880 million agricultural workers of the world are especially vulnerable to increasing heat stress due to climate change, affecting the health of individuals and reducing labour productivity. In this study, we focus on rice harvests across Asia and estimate the future impact on labour productivity by considering changes in climate at the time of the annual harvest. During these specific times of the year, heat stress is often high compared to the rest of the year. Examining climate simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6), we identified that labour productivity metrics for the rice harvest, based on local wet-bulb globe temperature, are strongly correlated with global mean near-surface air temperature in the long term (p ≪ 0.01, R 2 > 0.98 in all models). Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2.0 °C prevents a clear reduction in labour capacity of 1% across all Asia and 2% across Southeast Asia, affecting the livelihoods of around 100 million people. Due to differences in mechanization between and within countries, we find that rice labour is especially vulnerable in Indonesia, the Philippines, Bangladesh, and the Indian states of West Bengal and Kerala. Our results highlight the regional disparities and importance in considering seasonal differences in the estimation of the effect of climate change on labour productivity and occupational heat-stress.
dc.languageen
dc.publisherIOP Publishing
dc.subjectLetter
dc.subjectseasonal
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectagriculture
dc.subjectheat stress
dc.titleRegional disparities and seasonal differences in climate risk to rice labour.
dc.typeOther
dc.date.updated2021-11-22T14:38:20Z
prism.issueIdentifier12
prism.publicationNameEnviron Res Lett
prism.volume16
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.78265
dcterms.dateAccepted2021-10-22
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1088/1748-9326/ac3288
rioxxterms.versionVoR
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
dc.contributor.orcidSimpson, Charles [0000-0001-9356-5833]
dc.contributor.orcidHosking, J Scott [0000-0002-3646-3504]
dc.contributor.orcidMitchell, Dann [0000-0002-0117-3486]
dc.contributor.orcidBetts, Richard A [0000-0002-4929-0307]
dc.contributor.orcidShuckburgh, Emily [0000-0001-9206-3444]
dc.identifier.eissn1748-9326
pubs.funder-project-idWellcome Trust (216035/Z/19/Z)
pubs.funder-project-idNatural Environment Research Council (NE/S004645/1, NE/S004726/1, NE/S005242/1)
pubs.funder-project-idDefra (GA01101)
cam.issuedOnline2021-11-15


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