Global and regional aggregate damages associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels

Abstract

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>We quantify global and regional aggregate damages from global warming of 1.5 to 4 <jats:bold>°</jats:bold>C above pre-industrial levels using a well-established integrated assessment model, PAGE09. We find mean global aggregate damages in 2100 of 0.29% of GDP if global warming is limited to about 1.5 °C (90% confidence interval 0.09–0.60%) and 0.40% for 2 °C (range 0.12–0.91%). These are, respectively, 92% and 89% lower than mean losses of 3.67% of GDP (range 0.64–10.77%) associated with global warming of 4 °C. The net present value of global aggregate damages for the 2008–2200 period is estimated at $48.7 trillion for ~ 1.5 °C global warming (range $13–108 trillion) and $60.7 trillion for 2 °C (range $15–140 trillion). These are, respectively, 92% and 90% lower than the mean NPV of $591.7 trillion of GDP for 4 °C warming (range $70–1920 trillion). This leads to a mean social cost of CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> emitted in 2020 of ~ $150 for 4 °C warming as compared to $30 at ~ 1.5 °C warming. The benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 <jats:bold>°</jats:bold>C rather than 2 <jats:bold>°</jats:bold>C might be underestimated since PAGE09 is not recalibrated to reflect the recent understanding of the full range of risks at 1.5 <jats:bold>°</jats:bold>C warming.</jats:p>