Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorBirrell, Paul
dc.contributor.authorBlake, Joshua
dc.contributor.authorvan Leeuwen, Edwin
dc.contributor.authorGent, Nick
dc.contributor.authorDe Angelis, Daniela
dc.date.accessioned2021-12-15T12:12:31Z
dc.date.available2021-12-15T12:12:31Z
dc.date.issued2021-07-19
dc.identifier.issn0962-8436
dc.identifier.otherrstb20200279
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/331489
dc.descriptionFunder: Public Health England; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002141
dc.description.abstractEngland has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with severe 'lockdown' mitigation measures now gradually being lifted. The real-time pandemic monitoring presented here has contributed to the evidence informing this pandemic management throughout the first wave. Estimates on the 10 May showed lockdown had reduced transmission by 75%, the reproduction number falling from 2.6 to 0.61. This regionally varying impact was largest in London with a reduction of 81% (95% credible interval: 77-84%). Reproduction numbers have since then slowly increased, and on 19 June the probability of the epidemic growing was greater than 5% in two regions, South West and London. By this date, an estimated 8% of the population had been infected, with a higher proportion in London (17%). The infection-to-fatality ratio is 1.1% (0.9-1.4%) overall but 17% (14-22%) among the over-75s. This ongoing work continues to be key to quantifying any widespread resurgence, should accrued immunity and effective contact tracing be insufficient to preclude a second wave. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.
dc.languageen
dc.publisherThe Royal Society
dc.subjectARTICLES
dc.subjectResearch articles
dc.subjectreal-time
dc.subjectdynamics
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectBayesian
dc.subjectnowcasting
dc.subjectforecasting
dc.titleReal-time nowcasting and forecasting of COVID-19 dynamics in England: the first wave.
dc.typeArticle
dc.date.updated2021-12-15T12:12:31Z
prism.issueIdentifier1829
prism.publicationNamePhilos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci
prism.volume376
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.78943
dcterms.dateAccepted2021-04-12
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1098/rstb.2020.0279
rioxxterms.versionAO
rioxxterms.versionVoR
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.contributor.orcidBirrell, Paul [0000-0001-8131-4893]
dc.contributor.orcidDe Angelis, Daniela [0000-0001-6619-6112]
dc.identifier.eissn1471-2970
pubs.funder-project-idEngineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/R018561/1)
cam.issuedOnline2021-05-31


Files in this item

Thumbnail
Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record