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dc.contributor.authorStage, Helena B
dc.contributor.authorShingleton, Joseph
dc.contributor.authorGhosh, Sanmitra
dc.contributor.authorScarabel, Francesca
dc.contributor.authorPellis, Lorenzo
dc.contributor.authorFinnie, Thomas
dc.date.accessioned2021-12-15T12:12:34Z
dc.date.available2021-12-15T12:12:34Z
dc.date.issued2021-07-19
dc.identifier.issn0962-8436
dc.identifier.otherrstb20200277
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/331490
dc.descriptionFunder: Department for Health and Social Care
dc.description.abstractWe investigate the effect of school closure and subsequent reopening on the transmission of COVID-19, by considering Denmark, Norway, Sweden and German states as case studies. By comparing the growth rates in daily hospitalizations or confirmed cases under different interventions, we provide evidence that school closures contribute to a reduction in the growth rate approximately 7 days after implementation. Limited school attendance, such as older students sitting exams or the partial return of younger year groups, does not appear to significantly affect community transmission. In countries where community transmission is generally low, such as Denmark or Norway, a large-scale reopening of schools while controlling or suppressing the epidemic appears feasible. However, school reopening can contribute to statistically significant increases in the growth rate in countries like Germany, where community transmission is relatively high. In all regions, a combination of low classroom occupancy and robust test-and-trace measures were in place. Our findings underscore the need for a cautious evaluation of reopening strategies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.
dc.languageen
dc.publisherThe Royal Society
dc.subjectARTICLES
dc.subjectResearch articles
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectschool closure
dc.subjectschool reopening
dc.subjectnon-pharmaceutical interventions
dc.titleShut and re-open: the role of schools in the spread of COVID-19 in Europe.
dc.typeArticle
dc.date.updated2021-12-15T12:12:33Z
prism.issueIdentifier1829
prism.publicationNamePhilos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci
prism.volume376
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.78944
dcterms.dateAccepted2020-12-02
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1098/rstb.2020.0277
rioxxterms.versionAO
rioxxterms.versionVoR
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.contributor.orcidStage, Helena B. [0000-0001-9938-8452]
dc.contributor.orcidShingleton, Joseph [0000-0002-1628-3231]
dc.contributor.orcidGhosh, Sanmitra [0000-0002-4879-7587]
dc.contributor.orcidScarabel, Francesca [0000-0003-0250-4555]
dc.contributor.orcidPellis, Lorenzo [0000-0002-3436-6487]
dc.contributor.orcidFinnie, Thomas [0000-0001-5962-4211]
dc.identifier.eissn1471-2970
pubs.funder-project-idWellcome Trust (202562/Z/16/Z)
pubs.funder-project-idRoyal Society (202562/Z/16/Z)
pubs.funder-project-idCanadian Institutes of Health Research (2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) rapid research)
pubs.funder-project-idMedical Research Council (MC UU 00002/11)
cam.issuedOnline2021-05-31


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