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dc.contributor.authorHong, T.
dc.date.accessioned2022-01-04T17:04:58Z
dc.date.available2022-01-04T17:04:58Z
dc.date.issued2021-10-25
dc.identifier.otherCWPE2174
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/331916
dc.description.abstractNewspaper coverage-based uncertainty measures are made popular by Baker et al. (2016), who created the Trade Policy Uncertainty (TPU) index by analyzing appearances of uncertainty-, economy-, policy- and trade-related search terms. This paper shows their set of search terms leads to systematic inaccuracies such as misclassification and omission of articles. I then construct an improved U.S. TPU index by expanding and modifying the set of search terms, and restricting attention to national newspapers. The new set of search terms uncovers 31 times more articles, and the individual newspaper-level series that aggregate up to the new TPU index are more highly correlated, hence agreeing more with each other about the movements of U.S. trade policy uncertainty. I also provide a detailed mapping between major U.S. trade policy events and the new U.S. TPU index, and shows that Baker et al. (2016)'s U.S. TPU index sometimes mistakes financial market and political uncertainty for trade policy uncertainty.
dc.publisherFaculty of Economics, University of Cambridge
dc.relation.ispartofseriesCambridge Working Papers in Economics
dc.rightsAll Rights Reserved
dc.rights.urihttps://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved/
dc.subjectTrade policy uncertainty
dc.subjecttextual analysis
dc.subjectuncertainty shocks
dc.titleRevisiting the Trade Policy Uncertainty Index
dc.typeWorking Paper
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.79365


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