Repository logo
 

Challenges in modelling the dynamics of infectious diseases at the wildlife-human interface.

Published version
Peer-reviewed

Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Roberts, Mick 
Dobson, Andrew 
Wells, Konstans 

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic is of zoonotic origin, and many other emerging infections of humans have their origin in an animal host population. We review the challenges involved in modelling the dynamics of wildlife-human interfaces governing infectious disease emergence and spread. We argue that we need a better understanding of the dynamic nature of such interfaces, the underpinning diversity of pathogens and host-pathogen association networks, and the scales and frequencies at which environmental conditions enable spillover and host shifting from animals to humans to occur. The major drivers of the emergence of zoonoses are anthropogenic, including the global change in climate and land use. These, and other ecological processes pose challenges that must be overcome to counterbalance pandemic risk. The development of more detailed and nuanced models will provide better tools for analysing and understanding infectious disease emergence and spread.

Description

Funder: Alborada Trust

Keywords

Climate change, Ecological dynamics, Ecological invasions, Spillover, Zoonoses, Animals, Animals, Wild, COVID-19, Communicable Diseases, Humans, Pandemics, SARS-CoV-2

Journal Title

Epidemics

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

1755-4365
1878-0067

Volume Title

37

Publisher

Elsevier BV
Sponsorship
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/R014604/1)