How Will the Occupation End? A Real-World Exploration of Hindsight Bias and Retroactive Pessimism Concerning Anti-Government Protests in Bulgaria

Abstract

We explored hindsight bias and retroactive pessimism related to the occupation of Sofia University in 2013/14, using a memory design. We found partial evidence for hindsight bias for predictions of whether the occupation would achieve its goal (the government’s resignation) but not for specific events related to the occupation, which were deemed unlikely from the start and later perceived not to have occurred. We did not find support for retroactive pessimism: hindsight bias indices for the prediction of the government’s resignation were not reliably associated with support for the occupation and disappointment with its outcome. We propose using a recall/reconstruct measure as a more rigorous test for retroactive pessimism, which has so far been demonstrated using reassessment.