How Will the Occupation End? A Real-World Exploration of Hindsight Bias and Retroactive Pessimism Concerning Anti-Government Protests in Bulgaria
View / Open Files
Journal Title
American Journal of Psychology
ISSN
0002-9556
Publisher
University of Illinois Press
Type
Article
This Version
AM
Metadata
Show full item recordCitation
Rachev, N. R., & Petrova, M. How Will the Occupation End? A Real-World Exploration of Hindsight Bias and Retroactive Pessimism Concerning Anti-Government Protests in Bulgaria. American Journal of Psychology https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.80334
Abstract
We explored hindsight bias and retroactive pessimism related to the occupation of Sofia University in 2013/14, using a memory design. We found partial evidence for hindsight bias for predictions of whether the occupation would achieve its goal (the government’s resignation) but not for specific events related to the occupation, which were deemed unlikely from the start and later perceived not to have occurred. We did not find support for retroactive pessimism: hindsight bias indices for the prediction of the government’s resignation were not reliably associated with support for the occupation and disappointment with its outcome. We propose using a recall/reconstruct measure as a more rigorous test for retroactive pessimism, which has so far been demonstrated using reassessment.
Embargo Lift Date
2025-01-24
Identifiers
This record's DOI: https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.80334
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/332904
Statistics
Total file downloads (since January 2020). For more information on metrics see the
IRUS guide.
Recommended or similar items
The current recommendation prototype on the Apollo Repository will be turned off on 03 February 2023. Although the pilot has been fruitful for both parties, the service provider IKVA is focusing on horizon scanning products and so the recommender service can no longer be supported. We recognise the importance of recommender services in supporting research discovery and are evaluating offerings from other service providers. If you would like to offer feedback on this decision please contact us on: support@repository.cam.ac.uk