SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September-December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return.
Authors
Enright, Jessica
Hill, Edward M
Stage, Helena B
Bolton, Kirsty J
Nixon, Emily J
Fairbanks, Emma L
Tang, Maria L
Brooks-Pollock, Ellen
Dyson, Louise
Budd, Chris J
Hoyle, Rebecca B
Schewe, Lars
Gog, Julia R
Tildesley, Michael J
Publication Date
2021-08Journal Title
Royal Society Open Science
ISSN
2054-5703
Publisher
The Royal Society
Volume
8
Issue
8
Language
en
Type
Article
This Version
AO
VoR
Metadata
Show full item recordCitation
Enright, J., Hill, E. M., Stage, H. B., Bolton, K. J., Nixon, E. J., Fairbanks, E. L., Tang, M. L., et al. (2021). SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September-December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return.. Royal Society Open Science, 8 (8) https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210310
Description
Funder: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100005347
Funder: Wellcome Trust; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100004440
Funder: Medical Research Council; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265
Funder: UKRI
Funder: University of Nottingham; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000837
Abstract
In this paper, we present work on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in UK higher education settings using multiple approaches to assess the extent of university outbreaks, how much those outbreaks may have led to spillover in the community, and the expected effects of control measures. Firstly, we found that the distribution of outbreaks in universities in late 2020 was consistent with the expected importation of infection from arriving students. Considering outbreaks at one university, larger halls of residence posed higher risks for transmission. The dynamics of transmission from university outbreaks to wider communities is complex, and while sometimes spillover does occur, occasionally even large outbreaks do not give any detectable signal of spillover to the local population. Secondly, we explored proposed control measures for reopening and keeping open universities. We found the proposal of staggering the return of students to university residence is of limited value in terms of reducing transmission. We show that student adherence to testing and self-isolation is likely to be much more important for reducing transmission during term time. Finally, we explored strategies for testing students in the context of a more transmissible variant and found that frequent testing would be necessary to prevent a major outbreak.
Keywords
Science, society and policy, Research articles, epidemic modelling, pandemic modelling, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, higher education
Sponsorship
This work was supported by EPSRC grant no EP/R014604/1. The authors would also like to thank the Virtual Forum for Knowledge Exchange in Mathematical Sciences (V-KEMS) for the support during the workshop Unlocking higher education Spaces – What Might Mathematics Tell Us? where work on this paper was undertaken. K.J.B. acknowledges support from a University of Nottingham Anne McLaren Fellowship. E.L.F. acknowledges support via K.J.B.’s fellowship and the Nottingham BBSRC Doctoral Training Partnership. M.L.T. was supported by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (grant no. EP/N509620/1). E.B.-P., E.J.N., L.D., J.R.G. and M.J.T. were supported by UKRI through the JUNIPER modelling consortium (grant no. MR/V038613/1). E.M.H., L.D. and M.J.T. were supported by the Medical Research Council through the COVID-19 Rapid Response Rolling Call (grant no. MR/V009761/1). H.B.S. is funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (grant no. 202562/Z/16/Z). J.E. is partially funded by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (grant no. EP/T004878/1).
Funder references
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/N509620/1)
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/R014604/1)
MRC (via University of Warwick) (MR/V038613/1)
Identifiers
rsos210310
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210310
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/333911
Rights
Licence:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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