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dc.contributor.authorEnright, Jessica
dc.contributor.authorHill, Edward M
dc.contributor.authorStage, Helena B
dc.contributor.authorBolton, Kirsty J
dc.contributor.authorNixon, Emily J
dc.contributor.authorFairbanks, Emma L
dc.contributor.authorTang, Maria Lan
dc.contributor.authorBrooks-Pollock, Ellen
dc.contributor.authorDyson, Louise
dc.contributor.authorBudd, Chris J
dc.contributor.authorHoyle, Rebecca B
dc.contributor.authorSchewe, Lars
dc.contributor.authorGog, Julia
dc.contributor.authorTildesley, Michael J
dc.date.accessioned2022-02-11T13:40:26Z
dc.date.available2022-02-11T13:40:26Z
dc.date.issued2021-08
dc.date.submitted2021-02-23
dc.identifier.issn2054-5703
dc.identifier.otherrsos210310
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/333911
dc.descriptionFunder: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100005347
dc.descriptionFunder: Wellcome Trust; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100004440
dc.descriptionFunder: Medical Research Council; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265
dc.descriptionFunder: UKRI
dc.descriptionFunder: University of Nottingham; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000837
dc.description.abstractIn this paper, we present work on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in UK higher education settings using multiple approaches to assess the extent of university outbreaks, how much those outbreaks may have led to spillover in the community, and the expected effects of control measures. Firstly, we found that the distribution of outbreaks in universities in late 2020 was consistent with the expected importation of infection from arriving students. Considering outbreaks at one university, larger halls of residence posed higher risks for transmission. The dynamics of transmission from university outbreaks to wider communities is complex, and while sometimes spillover does occur, occasionally even large outbreaks do not give any detectable signal of spillover to the local population. Secondly, we explored proposed control measures for reopening and keeping open universities. We found the proposal of staggering the return of students to university residence is of limited value in terms of reducing transmission. We show that student adherence to testing and self-isolation is likely to be much more important for reducing transmission during term time. Finally, we explored strategies for testing students in the context of a more transmissible variant and found that frequent testing would be necessary to prevent a major outbreak.
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was supported by EPSRC grant no EP/R014604/1. The authors would also like to thank the Virtual Forum for Knowledge Exchange in Mathematical Sciences (V-KEMS) for the support during the workshop Unlocking higher education Spaces – What Might Mathematics Tell Us? where work on this paper was undertaken. K.J.B. acknowledges support from a University of Nottingham Anne McLaren Fellowship. E.L.F. acknowledges support via K.J.B.’s fellowship and the Nottingham BBSRC Doctoral Training Partnership. M.L.T. was supported by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (grant no. EP/N509620/1). E.B.-P., E.J.N., L.D., J.R.G. and M.J.T. were supported by UKRI through the JUNIPER modelling consortium (grant no. MR/V038613/1). E.M.H., L.D. and M.J.T. were supported by the Medical Research Council through the COVID-19 Rapid Response Rolling Call (grant no. MR/V009761/1). H.B.S. is funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (grant no. 202562/Z/16/Z). J.E. is partially funded by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (grant no. EP/T004878/1).
dc.languageen
dc.publisherThe Royal Society
dc.subjectScience, society and policy
dc.subjectResearch articles
dc.subjectepidemic modelling
dc.subjectpandemic modelling
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectSARS-CoV-2
dc.subjecthigher education
dc.titleSARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September-December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return.
dc.typeArticle
dc.date.updated2022-02-11T13:40:25Z
prism.issueIdentifier8
prism.publicationNameRoyal Society Open Science
prism.volume8
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.81327
dcterms.dateAccepted2021-07-16
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1098/rsos.210310
rioxxterms.versionAO
rioxxterms.versionVoR
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.contributor.orcidTang, Maria Lan [0000-0002-9671-8302]
dc.contributor.orcidGog, Julia [0000-0003-1240-7214]
dc.identifier.eissn2054-5703
pubs.funder-project-idEngineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/N509620/1)
pubs.funder-project-idEngineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/R014604/1)
pubs.funder-project-idMRC (via University of Warwick) (MR/V038613/1)
cam.issuedOnline2021-08-04


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