Vaccine escape in a heterogeneous population: insights for SARS-CoV-2 from a simple model.
Publication Date
2021-07Journal Title
R Soc Open Sci
ISSN
2054-5703
Publisher
The Royal Society
Volume
8
Issue
7
Language
en
Type
Article
This Version
AO
VoR
Metadata
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Gog, J. R., Hill, E. M., Danon, L., & Thompson, R. N. (2021). Vaccine escape in a heterogeneous population: insights for SARS-CoV-2 from a simple model.. R Soc Open Sci, 8 (7) https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210530
Abstract
As a countermeasure to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there has been swift development and clinical trial assessment of candidate vaccines, with subsequent deployment as part of mass vaccination campaigns. However, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has demonstrated the ability to mutate and develop variants, which can modify epidemiological properties and potentially also the effectiveness of vaccines. The widespread deployment of highly effective vaccines may rapidly exert selection pressure on the SARS-CoV-2 virus directed towards mutations that escape the vaccine-induced immune response. This is particularly concerning while infection is widespread. By developing and analysing a mathematical model of two population groupings with differing vulnerability and contact rates, we explore the impact of the deployment of vaccines among the population on the reproduction ratio, cases, disease abundance and vaccine escape pressure. The results from this model illustrate two insights: (i) vaccination aimed at reducing prevalence could be more effective at reducing disease than directly vaccinating the vulnerable; (ii) the highest risk for vaccine escape can occur at intermediate levels of vaccination. This work demonstrates a key principle: the careful targeting of vaccines towards particular population groups could reduce disease as much as possible while limiting the risk of vaccine escape.
Keywords
Science, society and policy, Research articles, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, vaccine, vaccine escape, heterogeneous population, policy
Sponsorship
MRC (via University of Warwick) (MR/V038613/1)
Identifiers
rsos210530
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210530
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/333912
Rights
Licence:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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