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Optimal strategies to protect a sub-population at risk due to an established epidemic

Published version
Peer-reviewed

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Type

Article

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Authors

Bussell, Elliott 

Abstract

Epidemics can particularly threaten certain sub-populations. For example, for SARS-CoV-2, the elderly are often preferentially protected. For diseases of plants and animals, certain sub-populations can drive mitigation because they are intrinsically more valuable for ecological, economic, socio-cultural or political reasons. Here we use optimal control theory to identify strategies to optimally protect a “high value” sub-population when there is a limited budget and epidemiological uncertainty. We use protection of the Redwood National Park in California in the face of the large ongoing state-wide epidemic of sudden oak death (caused by Phytophthora ramorum ) as a case study. We concentrate on whether control should be focused entirely within the National Park itself, or whether treatment of the growing epidemic in the surrounding “buffer region” can instead be more profitable. We find that, depending on rates of infection and the size of the ongoing epidemic, focusing control on the high value region is often optimal. However, priority should sometimes switch from the buffer region to the high value region only as the local outbreak grows. We characterise how the timing of any switch depends on epidemiological and logistic parameters, and test robustness to systematic misspecification of these factors due to imperfect prior knowledge.

Description

Keywords

Phytophthora ramorum, buffer region, optimal control theory, parameter uncertainty, policy plot, sudden oak death, Aged, Animals, COVID-19, Epidemics, Humans, Plant Diseases, Quercus, Risk Factors, SARS-CoV-2

Journal Title

Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

1742-5662
1742-5662

Volume Title

Publisher

The Royal Society
Sponsorship
Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (1643594)