Using past violence and current news to predict changes in violence
Accepted version
Peer-reviewed
Repository URI
Repository DOI
Change log
Authors
Mueller, H https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7667-3971
Rauh, C
Abstract
This article proposes a new method for predicting escalations and de‐escalations of violence using a model which relies on conflict history and text features. The text features are generated from over 3.5 million newspaper articles using a so‐called topic‐model. We show that the combined model relies to a large extent on conflict dynamics, but that text is able to contribute meaningfully to the prediction of rare outbreaks of violence in previously peaceful countries. Given the very powerful dynamics of the conflict trap these cases are particularly important for prevention efforts.
Description
Keywords
4408 Political Science, 44 Human Society
Journal Title
International Interactions
Conference Name
Journal ISSN
0305-0629
1547-7444
1547-7444
Volume Title
Publisher
Informa UK Limited
Publisher DOI
Sponsorship
Hannes Mueller acknowledges financial support from the Banco de España and the Spanish Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI), through the Severo Ochoa Programme for Centres of Excellence in R&D Barcelona School of Economics CEX2019‐000915‐S).