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Population-Level Modelling for Truck Fleet Survival Analysis

Accepted version
Peer-reviewed

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Conference Object

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Authors

Bull, Lawrence 
Dhada, Maharshi 
Steinert, Olof 
Lindgren, Tony 
Parlikad, Ajith Kumar 

Abstract

Population-level modelling is used to address issues of data sparsity in the survival analysis of a simulated truck fleet. Specifically, hierarchical Bayes with mixed effects improves the predictive capability of hazard models. A set of correlated functions is learnt over the vehicle population – in a combined model – to approximate fleet predictors. Model uncertainty is reduced when sub-fleets of vehicles are allowed to share correlated information. In turn, vehicle groups with incomplete data (automatically) borrow statistical strength from data-rich groups.

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Conference Name

European Workshop on Structural Health Monitoring

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Sponsorship
Wave 1 of The UKRI Strategic Priorities Fund under the EPSRC Grant EP/W006022/1, particularly the Ecosystems of Digital Twins theme within that grant and The Alan Turing Institute. Next Generation Converged Digital Infrastructure project (EP/R004935/1) funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council and BT.