Repository logo
 

The role of future anthropogenic methane emissions in air quality and climate

Published version
Peer-reviewed

Change log

Authors

Folberth, Gerd A 
O’Connor, Fiona M  ORCID logo  https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2893-4828
Abraham, N Luke 

Abstract

jats:titleAbstract</jats:title>jats:pMitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is crucial for achieving the goals of the Paris climate agreement. One key gas is methane, whose representation in most climate models is limited by using prescribed surface concentrations. Here we use a new, methane emissions-driven version of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) and simulate a zero anthropogenic methane emissions scenario (ZAME) in order to (i) attribute the role of anthropogenic methane emissions on the Earth system and (ii) bracket the potential for theoretical maximum mitigation. We find profound, rapid and sustained impacts on atmospheric composition and climate, compared to a counterfactual projection (SSP3-7.0, the ’worst case’ scenario for methane). In ZAME, methane declines to below pre-industrial levels within 12 years and global surface ozone decreases to levels seen in the 1970s. By 2050, 690,000 premature deaths per year and 1° of warming can be attributed to anthropogenic methane in SSP3-7.0. This work demonstrates the significant maximum potential of methane emissions reductions, and their air-quality co-benefits, but also reiterates the need for action on carbon dioxide (COjats:sub2</jats:sub>) emissions. We show that a methane emissions-driven treatment is essential for simulating the full Earth system impacts and feedbacks of methane emissions changes.</jats:p>

Description

Funder: National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS); doi: https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000662


Funder: Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme

Keywords

Article, /704/106/35/824, /704/106/694/1108, /704/106/694/682, article

Journal Title

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

2397-3722

Volume Title

5

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Sponsorship
RCUK | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) (NE/S007164/1)