Nowcasting COVID-19 deaths in England by age and region.
Publication Date
2022-06-15Journal Title
J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat
ISSN
0035-9254
Publisher
Royal Statistical Society
Type
Article
This Version
VoR
Metadata
Show full item recordCitation
Seaman, S. R., Samartsidis, P., Kall, M., & De Angelis, D. (2022). Nowcasting COVID-19 deaths in England by age and region.. J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12576
Abstract
Understanding the trajectory of the daily number of COVID-19 deaths is essential to decisions on how to respond to the pandemic, but estimating this trajectory is complicated by the delay between deaths occurring and being reported. In England the delay is typically several days, but it can be weeks. This causes considerable uncertainty about how many deaths occurred in recent days. Here we estimate the deaths per day in five age strata within seven English regions, using a Bayesian model that accounts for reporting-day effects and longer-term changes in the delay distribution. We show how the model can be computationally efficiently fitted when the delay distribution is the same in multiple strata, for example, over a wide range of ages.
Sponsorship
National Institute for Health Research (IS-BRC-1215-20014)
Identifiers
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12576
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/337113
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