Repository logo
 

Nowcasting COVID-19 deaths in England by age and region.

Published version
Peer-reviewed

Change log

Authors

Seaman, Shaun R 
Samartsidis, Pantelis 
Kall, Meaghan 
De Angelis, Daniela  ORCID logo  https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6619-6112

Abstract

Understanding the trajectory of the daily number of COVID-19 deaths is essential to decisions on how to respond to the pandemic, but estimating this trajectory is complicated by the delay between deaths occurring and being reported. In England the delay is typically several days, but it can be weeks. This causes considerable uncertainty about how many deaths occurred in recent days. Here we estimate the deaths per day in five age strata within seven English regions, using a Bayesian model that accounts for reporting-day effects and longer-term changes in the delay distribution. We show how the model can be computationally efficiently fitted when the delay distribution is the same in multiple strata, for example, over a wide range of ages.

Description

Keywords

epidemic monitoring, generalised Dirichlet, reporting delay, right‐truncation

Journal Title

J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0035-9254
1467-9876

Volume Title

Publisher

Royal Statistical Society
Sponsorship
National Institute for Health and Care Research (IS-BRC-1215-20014)