Exploring ways to respond to rising obesity and diabetes in the Caribbean using a system dynamics model
Authors
Publication Date
2022-05-19Journal Title
PLOS Global Public Health
ISSN
2767-3375
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Volume
2
Issue
5
Language
en
Type
Article
This Version
VoR
Metadata
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Guariguata, L., Garcia, L., Sobers, N., Ferguson, T. S., Woodcock, J., Samuels, T. A., Guell, C., & et al. (2022). Exploring ways to respond to rising obesity and diabetes in the Caribbean using a system dynamics model. PLOS Global Public Health, 2 (5) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000436
Abstract
<jats:p>Diabetes and obesity present a high and increasing burden of disease in the Caribbean that have failed to respond to prevention policies and interventions. These conditions are the result of a complex system of drivers and determinants that can make it difficult to predict the impact of interventions. In partnership with stakeholders, we developed a system dynamics simulation model to map the system driving diabetes and obesity prevalence in the Caribbean using Jamaica as a test case. The study aims to use the model to assess the magnitude changes necessary in physical activity and dietary intake to achieve global targets set by the WHO Global Action plan and to test scenarios for interventions to reduce the burden of diabetes and obesity. Continuing current trends in diet, physical activity, and demographics, the model predicts diabetes in Jamaican adults (20+ years) to rise from 12% in 2018 to 15.4% in 2030 and 20.9% by 2050. For obesity, it predicts prevalence to rise from 28.6% in 2018 to 32.1% by 2030 and 39.2% by 2050. The magnitude change necessary to achieve the global targets set by the World Health Organization is so great as to be unachievable. However, a combination of measures both upstream (including reducing the consumption of sugar sweetened beverages and ultra processed foods, increasing fruit and vegetable intake, and increasing moderate-to-vigorous activity) at the population level, and downstream (targeting people at high risk and with diabetes) can significantly reduce the future burden of diabetes and obesity in the region. No single intervention reduces the prevalence of these conditions as much as a combination of interventions. Thus, the findings of this model strongly support adopting a sustained and coordinated approach across various sectors to synergistically maximise the benefits of interventions.</jats:p>
Keywords
Research Article, Medicine and health sciences, Biology and life sciences, People and places
Sponsorship
Medical Research Council (MR/N005384/1)
Identifiers
pgph-d-22-00092
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000436
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/337315
Rights
Licence:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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