Exploring ways to respond to rising obesity and diabetes in the Caribbean using a system dynamics model.
Authors
Publication Date
2022Journal Title
PLOS Glob Public Health
ISSN
2767-3375
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Volume
2
Issue
5
Language
en
Type
Article
This Version
VoR
Metadata
Show full item recordCitation
Guariguata, L., Garcia, L., Sobers, N., Ferguson, T. S., Woodcock, J., Samuels, T. A., Guell, C., & et al. (2022). Exploring ways to respond to rising obesity and diabetes in the Caribbean using a system dynamics model.. PLOS Glob Public Health, 2 (5) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000436
Abstract
Diabetes and obesity present a high and increasing burden of disease in the Caribbean that have failed to respond to prevention policies and interventions. These conditions are the result of a complex system of drivers and determinants that can make it difficult to predict the impact of interventions. In partnership with stakeholders, we developed a system dynamics simulation model to map the system driving diabetes and obesity prevalence in the Caribbean using Jamaica as a test case. The study aims to use the model to assess the magnitude changes necessary in physical activity and dietary intake to achieve global targets set by the WHO Global Action plan and to test scenarios for interventions to reduce the burden of diabetes and obesity. Continuing current trends in diet, physical activity, and demographics, the model predicts diabetes in Jamaican adults (20+ years) to rise from 12% in 2018 to 15.4% in 2030 and 20.9% by 2050. For obesity, it predicts prevalence to rise from 28.6% in 2018 to 32.1% by 2030 and 39.2% by 2050. The magnitude change necessary to achieve the global targets set by the World Health Organization is so great as to be unachievable. However, a combination of measures both upstream (including reducing the consumption of sugar sweetened beverages and ultra processed foods, increasing fruit and vegetable intake, and increasing moderate-to-vigorous activity) at the population level, and downstream (targeting people at high risk and with diabetes) can significantly reduce the future burden of diabetes and obesity in the region. No single intervention reduces the prevalence of these conditions as much as a combination of interventions. Thus, the findings of this model strongly support adopting a sustained and coordinated approach across various sectors to synergistically maximise the benefits of interventions.
Keywords
Prevention, Nutrition, Obesity, Diabetes, 3 Prevention of disease and conditions, and promotion of well-being, 3.1 Primary prevention interventions to modify behaviours or promote wellbeing, Stroke, Metabolic and endocrine, Cancer, Oral and gastrointestinal, Cardiovascular, 3 Good Health and Well Being
Sponsorship
Medical Research Council (MR/N005384/1)
Identifiers
pgph-d-22-00092
External DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000436
This record's URL: https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/337315
Rights
Licence:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Statistics
Total file downloads (since January 2020). For more information on metrics see the
IRUS guide.
Recommended or similar items
The current recommendation prototype on the Apollo Repository will be turned off on 03 February 2023. Although the pilot has been fruitful for both parties, the service provider IKVA is focusing on horizon scanning products and so the recommender service can no longer be supported. We recognise the importance of recommender services in supporting research discovery and are evaluating offerings from other service providers. If you would like to offer feedback on this decision please contact us on: support@repository.cam.ac.uk