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Nowcasting COVID-19 Deaths in England by Age and Region

Published version
Peer-reviewed

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Authors

Seaman, Shaun R 
Samartsidis, Pantelis 
Kall, Meaghan 
De Angelis, Daniela 

Abstract

jats:titleAbstract</jats:title>jats:pUnderstanding the trajectory of the daily number of COVID-19 deaths is essential to decisions on how to respond to the pandemic, but estimating this trajectory is complicated by the delay between deaths occurring and being reported. In England the delay is typically several days, but it can be weeks. This causes considerable uncertainty about how many deaths occurred in recent days. Here we estimate the deaths per day in five age strata within seven English regions, using a Bayesian model that accounts for reporting-day effects and longer-term changes in the delay distribution. We show how the model can be computationally efficiently fitted when the delay distribution is the same in multiple strata, for example, over a wide range of ages.</jats:p>

Description

Keywords

ORIGINAL ARTICLE, ORIGINAL ARTICLES, epidemic monitoring, generalised Dirichlet, reporting delay, right‐truncation

Journal Title

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0035-9254
1467-9876

Volume Title

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)