Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorMueller, H.
dc.contributor.authorRauh, C.
dc.contributor.authorRuggieri, A.
dc.date.accessioned2022-07-05T16:43:16Z
dc.date.available2022-07-05T16:43:16Z
dc.date.issued2022-06-14
dc.identifier.otherCWPE2236
dc.identifier.otherJIWP2213
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/338814
dc.description.abstractThis document presents the outcome of two modules developed for the UK Foreign, Commonwealth Development Office (FCDO): 1) a forecast model which uses machine learning and text downloads to predict outbreaks and intensity of internal armed conflict. 2) A decision making module that embeds these forecasts into a model of preventing armed conflict damages. The outcome is a quantitative benchmark which should provide a testing ground for internal FCDO debates on both strategic levels (i.e. the process of deciding on country priorities) and operational levels (i.e. identifying critical periods by the country experts). Our method allows the FCDO to simulate policy interventions and changes in its strategic focus. We show, for example, that the FCDO should remain engaged in recently stabilized armed conflicts and re-think its development focus in countries with the highest risks. The total expected economic benefit of reinforced preventive efforts, as defined in this report, would bring monthly savings in expected costs of 26 billion USD with a monthly gain to the UK of 630 million USD.
dc.publisherFaculty of Economics, University of Cambridge
dc.relation.ispartofseriesCambridge Working Papers in Economics
dc.relation.ispartofseriesJaneway Institute Working Paper Series
dc.rightsAll Rights Reserved
dc.rights.urihttps://www.rioxx.net/licenses/all-rights-reserved/
dc.subjectprevention
dc.subjectforecasting
dc.subjectinternal armed conflict
dc.subjectdynamic optimisation
dc.titleDynamic Early Warning and Action Model
dc.typeWorking Paper
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.86221


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record