Why Do Harsh and Unpredictable Environments Lead to Delinquency? The Case for Unpredictability Schemas and Short-Term Mindsets

Abstract

Objectives: We test whether there is a shared mechanism between many environmental risk factors and delinquency. Youth developing in harsh and unpredictable environments can adopt the belief that the world is chaotic, people are undependable, and they are unable to control their circumstances (i.e., an unpredictability schema). They may then opt to focus on the present (i.e., a short-term mindset), rather than invest in a future that is not stable or guaranteed. Methods: We test this idea by examining whether harsh and unpredictable environments are associated with delinquency—first through unpredictability schemas and then short-term mindsets—using structural equation models of two representative and geographically diverse longitudinal datasets. Results: Results show that many indicators of harsh and unpredictable environments predict unpredictability schemas and short-term mindsets. Their relationships with delinquency are mediated through short-term mindsets, especially sensation-seeking, but less so through unpredictability schemas. Conclusions: Similar findings across the datasets suggest short-term mindsets may be evoked as a response to harsh and unpredictable environments, namely unpredictable parenting and violence among peers. This illuminates the consequences of exposure to adverse environments and lends credence to the idea that short-term mindsets can help explain the link between many risk factors and crime.