Self-fulfilling recessions at the zero lower bound


Type
Article
Change log
Authors
Paustian, Matthias 
Yates, Tony 
Abstract

We highlight an overlooked source of equilibrium multiplicity in monetary economies subject to a zero bound on nominal interest rates. In environments with sufficient endogenous propagation, depressed contemporary economic conditions must directly lower expectations of future output and inflation. A current recession followed by gradual convergence back to steady state may 10 then be an equilibrium outcome, without any exogenous impulse. We present this mechanism heuristically in partial equilibrium, and in two computed examples of New Keynesian economies. Expansionary fiscal policy makes the recessionary equilibrium more severe at the margin, but commitment to a sufficiently large expansion can rule out multiplicity.

Description
Keywords
38 Economics, 3802 Econometrics, 3803 Economic Theory, 8 Decent Work and Economic Growth
Journal Title
Journal of Monetary Economics
Conference Name
Journal ISSN
0304-3932
Volume Title
115
Publisher
Elsevier BV