SARS-CoV-2 transmission across age groups in France and implications for control.


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Abstract

The shielding of older individuals has been proposed to limit COVID-19 hospitalizations while relaxing general social distancing in the absence of vaccines. Evaluating such approaches requires a deep understanding of transmission dynamics across ages. Here, we use detailed age-specific case and hospitalization data to model the rebound in the French epidemic in summer 2020, characterize age-specific transmission dynamics and critically evaluate different age-targeted intervention measures in the absence of vaccines. We find that while the rebound started in young adults, it reached individuals aged ≥80 y.o. after 4 weeks, despite substantial contact reductions, indicating substantial transmission flows across ages. We derive the contribution of each age group to transmission. While shielding older individuals reduces mortality, it is insufficient to allow major relaxations of social distancing. When the epidemic remains manageable (R close to 1), targeting those most contributing to transmission is better than shielding at-risk individuals. Pandemic control requires an effort from all age groups.

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Funder: AXA Research Fund (Le Fonds AXA pour la Recherche); doi: https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001961


Funder: We acknowledge financial support from the Investissement d'Avenir program, the Laboratoire d'Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases program (grant ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID), Santé Publique France, the INCEPTION project (PIA/ANR-16-COV-0005), the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant 101003589 (RECOVER) and 874735 (VEO), AXA and Groupama.

Keywords
Article, /631/114/2397, /631/114/2415, /631/326/596/4130, /692/308/174, /141, /129, article
Journal Title
Nat Commun
Conference Name
Journal ISSN
2041-1723
2041-1723
Volume Title
12
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Sponsorship
EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020) (101003589, 874735)