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Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models

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dc.contributor.authorZanis, Prodromos
dc.contributor.authorAkritidis, Dimitris
dc.contributor.authorTurnock, Steven
dc.contributor.authorNaik, Vaishali
dc.contributor.authorSzopa, Sophie
dc.contributor.authorGeorgoulias, Aristeidis K
dc.contributor.authorBauer, Susanne E
dc.contributor.authorDeushi, Makoto
dc.contributor.authorHorowitz, Larry W
dc.contributor.authorKeeble, James
dc.contributor.authorLe Sager, Philippe
dc.contributor.authorO’Connor, Fiona M
dc.contributor.authorOshima, Naga
dc.contributor.authorTsigaridis, Konstantinos
dc.contributor.authorvan Noije, Twan
dc.contributor.orcidDeushi, Makoto [0000-0002-0373-3918]
dc.contributor.orcidOshima, Naga [0000-0002-8451-2411]
dc.date.accessioned2022-01-28T16:52:09Z
dc.date.available2022-01-28T16:52:09Z
dc.date.issued2022-01-28
dc.date.submitted2021-10-09
dc.date.updated2022-01-28T16:52:08Z
dc.descriptionFunder: Hadley Centre
dc.descriptionFunder: BEIS
dc.descriptionFunder: NERC
dc.descriptionFunder: Met Office; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000847
dc.descriptionFunder: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001691
dc.descriptionFunder: Public Investment Program of the Ministry of Development and Investments of Greece
dc.description.abstractAbstract: This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modelling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of −0.96 ± 0.07 ppbv °C−1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abundances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from −0.2 to −2 ppbv °C−1, with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural biogenic volatile organic compounds emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv C−1, implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.
dc.identifier.doi10.17863/CAM.80810
dc.identifier.eissn1748-9326
dc.identifier.othererlac4a34
dc.identifier.otherac4a34
dc.identifier.othererl-112650.r2
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/333387
dc.languageen
dc.publisherIOP Publishing
dc.subjectLetter
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectsurface ozone
dc.subjectbenefit
dc.subjectpenalty
dc.subjectCMIP6
dc.subjectESMs
dc.titleClimate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models
dc.typeOther
dcterms.dateAccepted2022-01-11
prism.issueIdentifier2
prism.publicationNameEnvironmental Research Letters
prism.volume17
pubs.funder-project-idDefra (GA01101)
pubs.funder-project-idEU (641816)
pubs.funder-project-idNCAS (R8/H12/83/003)
pubs.funder-project-idEnvironmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan (JPMXD1420318865)
pubs.funder-project-idMinistry of the Environment, Japan (MLIT1753)
pubs.funder-project-idKAKENHI (JP18H03363, JP18H05292, JP19K12312, JP20K04070)
pubs.funder-project-idTechnology Development (JPMEERF20202003, JPMEERF20205001)
rioxxterms.licenseref.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
rioxxterms.versionVoR
rioxxterms.versionofrecord10.1088/1748-9326/ac4a34

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