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What bulk material production is possible on a transition to net zero emissions by 2050 with limited zero emissions resources?

Published version
Peer-reviewed

Repository DOI


Type

Article

Change log

Authors

Gast, L 
Allwood, JM 

Abstract

Global production of bulk materials such as steel, paper, and aluminium has tripled over the past three decades and decarbonising their production is a difficult challenge. The transition to net zero emissions depends on three key zero emissions resources, non-emitting electricity, biomass, and carbon storage. This paper develops a model to anticipate how likely deployment of these three resources will constrain bulk material production on the transition to net zero emissions by 2050. The results predict that 2050 supply of steel, paper and aluminium will be up to 40% lower than demand. To address this shortfall, policy should promote a more rapid deployment of zero emissions resources in parallel with the strategies of material demand reduction. Synopsis: This paper quantifies potential production levels of aluminium, steel and paper on a trajectory that achieves net zero emissions by 2050 given constraints on zero emissions resources.

Description

Keywords

Bulk material production, Zero emissions resource, GHG emissions mitigation, Industrial emissions, Net zero production

Journal Title

Journal of Cleaner Production

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0959-6526
1879-1786

Volume Title

423

Publisher

Elsevier BV
Sponsorship
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/S019111/1)