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Excess deaths associated with covid-19 pandemic in 2020: age and sex disaggregated time series analysis in 29 high income countries.

Published version
Peer-reviewed

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Authors

Shkolnikov, Vladimir M 
Acosta, Rolando J 
Klimkin, Ilya 
Kawachi, Ichiro 

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the direct and indirect effects of the covid-19 pandemic on mortality in 2020 in 29 high income countries with reliable and complete age and sex disaggregated mortality data. DESIGN: Time series study of high income countries. SETTING: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, England and Wales, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Scotland, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United States. PARTICIPANTS: Mortality data from the Short-term Mortality Fluctuations data series of the Human Mortality Database for 2016-20, harmonised and disaggregated by age and sex. INTERVENTIONS: Covid-19 pandemic and associated policy measures. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Weekly excess deaths (observed deaths versus expected deaths predicted by model) in 2020, by sex and age (0-14, 15-64, 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years), estimated using an over-dispersed Poisson regression model that accounts for temporal trends and seasonal variability in mortality. RESULTS: An estimated 979 000 (95% confidence interval 954 000 to 1 001 000) excess deaths occurred in 2020 in the 29 high income countries analysed. All countries had excess deaths in 2020, except New Zealand, Norway, and Denmark. The five countries with the highest absolute number of excess deaths were the US (458 000, 454 000 to 461 000), Italy (89 100, 87 500 to 90 700), England and Wales (85 400, 83 900 to 86 800), Spain (84 100, 82 800 to 85 300), and Poland (60 100, 58 800 to 61 300). New Zealand had lower overall mortality than expected (-2500, -2900 to -2100). In many countries, the estimated number of excess deaths substantially exceeded the number of reported deaths from covid-19. The highest excess death rates (per 100 000) in men were in Lithuania (285, 259 to 311), Poland (191, 184 to 197), Spain (179, 174 to 184), Hungary (174, 161 to 188), and Italy (168, 163 to 173); the highest rates in women were in Lithuania (210, 185 to 234), Spain (180, 175 to 185), Hungary (169, 156 to 182), Slovenia (158, 132 to 184), and Belgium (151, 141 to 162). Little evidence was found of subsequent compensatory reductions following excess mortality. CONCLUSION: Approximately one million excess deaths occurred in 2020 in these 29 high income countries. Age standardised excess death rates were higher in men than women in almost all countries. Excess deaths substantially exceeded reported deaths from covid-19 in many countries, indicating that determining the full impact of the pandemic on mortality requires assessment of excess deaths. Many countries had lower deaths than expected in children <15 years. Sex inequality in mortality widened further in most countries in 2020.

Description

Keywords

Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, COVID-19, Child, Child, Preschool, Developed Countries, Europe, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Mortality, Poisson Distribution, Republic of Korea, Sex Factors, United States, Young Adult

Journal Title

BMJ

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

0959-8146
1756-1833

Volume Title

373

Publisher

BMJ
Sponsorship
MRC (MC_UU_00006/7)
Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12015/6)
Medical Research Council (MC_PC_12026)
NI receives salary support from the Nuffield Department of Population Health (NDPH), University of Oxford. BL acknowledges support from UK Biobank, the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, and the BHF Centre of Research Excellence, Oxford). MW is supported by the Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), a UK Clinical Research Collaboration (UKCRC) Public Health Research Centre of Excellence Funding from the British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), and Wellcome Trust, under the auspices of the UKCRC. MW is also supported by the Medical Research Council (grant Nos MC_UU_12015/6 and MC_UU_00006/7). IK (Ilya Klimkin) was fully, and VMS & JDA were partially, supported by the Basic Research Program of the National Research University Higher School of Economics. RAI and RJA are supported by the National Institutes of Health (R35GM131802 and T32ES007142, respectively). KK and TY are supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Applied Research Collaboration East Midlands (ARC EM) and the NIHR Leicester Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). COVID-19 research for TY is supported by the NIHR Leicester BRC and a grants from the UKRI (MRC)-DHSC (NIHR) COVID-19 Rapid Response Rolling Call (MR/V020536/1) and from HDR-UK (HDRUK2020.138). The BMJ Open Access Fee was supported by research funding from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Foundation (with support from Amgen).