Repository logo
 

Advancing crop disease early warning in South Asia by complementing expert surveys with internet media scraping

Published version
Peer-reviewed

Repository DOI


Change log

Authors

Faisal, Asif Al 
Baidya, Suraj 
Bhatta, Madan 

Abstract

jats:titleAbstract</jats:title>jats:pWheat contributes one‐fifth of the global food supply with an estimated 29% of global production in low and lower‐middle income countries. As production expands across southern Asia, yields are often negatively impacted by outbreaks of fungal rust diseases. A wheat rust early warning and advisory system comprising surveillance, near real‐time disease risk forecasts and advisory dissemination has been established in two target countries in South Asia, including Nepal and Bangladesh. However, as wheat rust spores can be aerially transmitted over long distances, near real‐time estimates of disease incidence are required from sources of infection in neighbouring regions. To address this challenge, we developed and tested a novel algorithm to generate proxy observations of infection sources using online media reports in two neighbouring countries, India and Pakistan. Media sampling could provide an effective alternative where data from ground surveys are not readily available in near real‐time. Our results show that west Nepal was exposed to a substantial inoculum pressure from aerially dispersed stripe rust spores originating from India and Pakistan. There were no outbreaks of stripe rust disease in Bangladesh with only very low levels of cross‐border dispersion and generally unfavourable environmental conditions for infection. We further describe how proxy observations informed farmer decision‐making in near real‐time in Nepal and filled a knowledge gap in identifying early sources of infection for a major outbreak of stripe rust during 2020 in Nepal. Our results highlight the importance of international cooperation in mitigating transboundary plant pathogens.</jats:p>

Description

Publication status: Published


Funder: Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100020171


Funder: Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100015815

Keywords

media scraping, long‐distance dispersal, disease surveillance, early warning system, Nepal, wheat stripe rust

Journal Title

Climate Resilience and Sustainability

Conference Name

Journal ISSN

2692-4587
2692-4587

Volume Title

3

Publisher

Wiley
Sponsorship
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (INV‐010472)